Israel's election, 27 October 2026
Netanyahu's outgoing coalition averages 50.6 seats in the latest polls, 10 short of a majority. The vote is in 10 days.
245 polls since January, from 11 outlets. Latest: Maariv, 15 Oct.
xiquinhosilva / CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
The state of the race
The average takes the latest poll from each of the 10 outlets that published in the last 14 days. It gives the parties of the outgoing government, Likud, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and United Torah Judaism, 50.6 seats between them, with the outlets ranging from 47 to 61. Only Channel 14's puts it at 61 or more.
Yashar, Gadi Eisenkot's party, averages 21.7 seats and comes first in 8 of the 10 polls. Likud averages 21 and comes first in Channel 14 and i24 News.
The coalition's average has gone from 55.3 in the first weeks of January to 50.6 today, and stood at 50.3 when the party lists closed on 8 September. Blue and White and Haredi Public fall below the 3.25% threshold in every poll that names them.
Every poll this year
Each dot is one poll's total for the parties of the outgoing government. The line is the average, each outlet counted once over the previous 14 days. Tap or hover a dot for the poll.
Where every party stands
Each party's average across the same 10 polls, with its lowest and highest figure among them.
Yashar
Gadi Eisenkot
21.720–26
Likud
Benjamin Netanyahu
2118–29
Together
Naftali Bennett
11.87–13
The Democrats
Yair Golan
98–10
Otzma Yehudit
Itamar Ben-Gvir
8.27–9
Joint List
Yousef Jabareen
87–9
United Torah Judaism
7.97–8
Yisrael Beiteinu
Avigdor Lieberman
7.95–9
Shas
Aryeh Deri
7.57–10
Religious Zionism–Zehut
Bezalel Smotrich
65–7
Ra'am
Mansour Abbas
5.25–6
The Reservists–New Economic Party
3.80–5
Amcha Yisrael
Ofer Winter
2.20–4
Blue and White
Benny Gantz
Below the threshold in 9 of 9 polls
0
Haredi Public
Below the threshold in 7 of 7 polls
0
The dashed line is 4 seats, about the least a list can win: a party needs 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset at all.
Build a coalition
Pick the parties. The total is the sum of their averages, and the line under it says how many of the latest polls give the same parties the 61 seats a government needs.
50.6 seats on today's average. 10.4 short of 61.
1 of the 10 outlets' latest polls give these parties 61 or more: Channel 14 (61).
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How Israel votes
The whole country is one constituency, and voters choose a party rather than a candidate. Behind a cardboard screen each voter picks the printed slip of one list from a tray, seals it in an envelope and drops it in the box.
The 120 seats are shared out in proportion to the vote among the lists that pass 3.25%. Pairs of parties can sign surplus-vote agreements, which pool their leftover votes when the last few seats are handed out.
A government needs the confidence of 61 members. After the results the president gives one member, usually the leader with the most backing, 28 days to put a coalition together, and can extend that by up to 14 more.
Every party since January
Same scale in every chart, 0 to 35 seats, so the slopes compare. The grey dots are single polls and the line is the average. The change is counted from the day the lists closed, 8 September.
Yashar
21.7 now, −1.3 since 8 Sep
Likud
21 now, −1.2 since 8 Sep
Together
11.8 now, −0.8 since 8 Sep
Before 26 April: Yesh Atid and Bennett 2026 added together.
The Democrats
9 now, −0.7 since 8 Sep
Otzma Yehudit
8.2 now, +1.1 since 8 Sep
Joint List
8 now, +0.8 since 8 Sep
Starts in July. Before that the polls counted Ra'am inside the Joint List.
United Torah Judaism
7.9 now, +0.3 since 8 Sep
Yisrael Beiteinu
7.9 now, −0.2 since 8 Sep
Shas
7.5 now, −0.3 since 8 Sep
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6 now, +0.4 since 8 Sep
Before 1 September: the two parties added together.
Ra'am
5.2 now, +0.2 since 8 Sep
Starts in July. Before that the polls counted it inside the Joint List.
The Reservists–New Economic Party
3.8 now, +1.8 since 8 Sep
No figure while the Reservists ran inside Zionist Home, July to September.
Amcha Yisrael
2.2 now, −0.7 since 8 Sep
How far apart the outlets are
Each outlet's polls against the average of the others in the same fortnight, for the outgoing coalition's total, over every poll this year.
Channel 14's polls, by Shlomo Filber and NEXT DATA, have given the outgoing coalition 12.5 seats more than the other outlets across 41 polls this year. On Likud alone the gap is +8.7 seats. At the other end, Maariv's polls run 5.1 below.
Channel 14
Shlomo Filber and NEXT DATA · 41 polls
+12.5
i24 News
Direct Polls · 18 polls
+5.8
Israel Hayom
Kantar · 11 polls
−1.7
Kan 11
Kantar · 22 polls
−1.8
Channel 13
Midgam Project, The Madad, Stat-Net and Askaria · 25 polls
−1.9
Channel 16
Maagar Mochot · 9 polls
−2.3
Zman Yisrael
Yossi Tatika · 36 polls
−2.8
Walla
Lazar Research and Panel4All · 5 polls
−3.5
Channel 12
Midgam Research & Consulting · 36 polls
−3.5
Maariv
Lazar Research and Panel4All · 38 polls
−5.1
The latest polls
Seats as each outlet published them. A dash is a party below the threshold, a dot one the poll did not ask about. The outlet's name opens its own report.
| Poll | Likud | Together | RZP–Zehut | Otzma | Blue & White | Shas | UTJ | Yisrael Beiteinu | Ra'am | Joint List | Democrats | Yashar | Reservists–NEP | Amcha Yisrael | Haredi Public | Coalition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maariv15 Oct · Lazar Research and Panel4All | 18 | 13 | 6 | 8 | – | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 4 | – | 47 |
| Zman Yisrael15 Oct · Yossi Tatika | 20 | 11 | 6 | 7 | – | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 4 | – | · | 49 |
| Channel 1314 Oct · Midgam Project, The Madad, Stat-Net and Askaria | 18 | 12 | 6 | 8 | – | 7 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 4 | – | 47 |
| Channel 1613 Oct · Maagar Mochot | 18 | 13 | 6 | 9 | – | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 5 | 4 | – | 48 |
| Walla12 Oct · Lazar Research and Panel4All | 20 | 13 | 6 | 8 | – | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 4 | · | – | 49 |
| Channel 1412 Oct · Shlomo Filber and NEXT DATA | 29 | 7 | 7 | 7 | – | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 4 | – | – | 61 |
| Channel 1212 Oct · Midgam Research & Consulting | 20 | 13 | 6 | 8 | – | 8 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 4 | – | – | 49 |
| Kan 1111 Oct · Kantar | 20 | 12 | 5 | 9 | · | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 4 | · | 49 |
| Maariv8 Oct · Lazar Research and Panel4All | 20 | 13 | 6 | 8 | – | 7 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 4 | – | 48 |
| Zman Yisrael8 Oct · Yossi Tatika | 20 | 13 | 5 | 6 | – | 8 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24 | – | 4 | · | 47 |
| Israel Hayom8 Oct · Kantar | 21 | 13 | 6 | 9 | – | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 5 | – | · | 51 |
| i24 News7 Oct · Direct Polls | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | – | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 20 | – | 4 | – | 56 |
| Channel 147 Oct · Shlomo Filber and NEXT DATA | 31 | 8 | 6 | 8 | – | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | – | – | – | 63 |
| Channel 137 Oct · Midgam Project, The Madad, Stat-Net and Askaria | 20 | 12 | 7 | 8 | – | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 20 | – | 5 | – | 50 |
| Channel 125 Oct · Midgam Research & Consulting | 21 | 13 | 6 | 7 | – | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 4 | – | – | 49 |
| Kan 114 Oct · Kantar | 21 | 12 | 6 | 8 | – | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 4 | – | – | 51 |
| i24 News1 Oct · Direct Polls | 28 | 9 | 5 | 8 | · | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 22 | – | 4 | · | 56 |
| Channel 141 Oct · Shlomo Filber and NEXT DATA | 32 | 8 | 7 | 7 | – | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | – | – | – | 64 |
| Zman Yisrael1 Oct · Yossi Tatika | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | – | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 4 | · | 49 |
| Maariv1 Oct · Lazar Research and Panel4All | 19 | 13 | 5 | 9 | – | 7 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 4 | 4 | – | 47 |
| Channel 1330 Sep · Midgam Project, The Madad, Stat-Net and Askaria | 19 | 11 | 7 | 8 | – | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 21 | – | 5 | – | 49 |
| Channel 1629 Sep · Maagar Mochot | 19 | 14 | 6 | 8 | – | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 5 | – | 48 |
| Channel 1428 Sep · Shlomo Filber and NEXT DATA | 31 | 9 | 7 | 7 | – | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | – | – | – | 63 |
| Kan 1127 Sep · Kantar | 21 | 11 | 6 | 7 | · | 7 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 4 | · | 48 |
All 245 polls of 2026, with every party and a link to each report: israel-election-2026-polls.csv
The dates that decide it
Still to come
20 Octin 3 days
Israelis posted at embassies and consulates abroad vote. Other Israelis abroad have to fly home to vote. The Jerusalem Post
23 Octin 6 days
The last day a poll may be published. Israeli law bars new polls from the end of the Friday before the vote.
27 Octin 10 days
Election day. Polling stations close at 22:00, when the television channels publish their exit polls. The Jerusalem Post
4 Novin 18 days
The official results are confirmed. The Jerusalem Post
How the race got here
16 Oct
Last day for parties to file surplus-vote agreements. JNS
4 Oct
Deadline for the Supreme Court to rule on the disqualified lists and candidates. Central Elections Committee
24 Sep
The same committee declines to bar the Democrats, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. The Times of Israel
23 Sep
The Central Elections Committee votes to bar Ra'am and the Joint List from the ballot. The Supreme Court has the final word. The Jerusalem Post
10–12 Sep
Surplus-vote pacts are signed: Yashar with the Democrats, Together with Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Joint List with Ra'am. The Times of Israel
8 Sep
Candidate lists close with 38 parties filed. Haaretz
6 Sep
Hili Tropper joins Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, and the Reservists team up with the New Economic Party. JFeed
4 Sep
Unity, the party Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein founded in August, drops out of the race. Israel National News
1 Sep
The Religious Zionist Party and Zehut agree to run on one list. The Jerusalem Post
25 Aug
Ofer Winter, a former IDF brigadier general, launches Amcha Yisrael. The Times of Israel
19 Aug
Hadash, Ta'al and Balad re-form the Joint List. Israel National News
17 Jul
The Knesset votes 62 to 0 to dissolve itself, fixing the election for 27 October. Ynet
26 Apr
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merge their parties into one list, Together, with Bennett at the top. The Jerusalem Post
Election news on Israel.com
- IDF chief warns of escalation before elections, condemns settler violence
14 Oct
- Trump says he 'may be doing something' on Israel's October 27 election
13 Oct
- France voices regret as Palestinian elections pushed to September 2027
11 Oct
- Pentagon told to ready Iran strike options before US midterm elections
8 Oct
- Israel's army, police and Shin Bet chiefs meet ahead of October 27 election
6 Oct
- Netanyahu warns Hamas against trying to influence elections, claims 4,000 killed
6 Oct
How this page works
Every poll here was commissioned and published by an Israeli news outlet. We read them from the poll table on English Wikipedia, which volunteers update within hours of each release, and check every row before using it: its seats must add up to 120, and its total for the outgoing government must match the parties it lists. 17 rows failed one of those checks or named no outlet, and are left out.
The average is the latest poll from each outlet whose fieldwork ended in the last 14 days, each outlet counted once, so the outlets that poll twice a week do not outweigh the ones that poll every other week.
Read from the table on 17 October, 05:41 Israel time. Figures as of the table's edit of 16 October, 15:27 Israel time. The Wikipedia table
Frequently asked questions
When is Israel's next election?+
Tuesday, 27 October 2026. Polling stations close at 22:00 Israel time, when the television channels publish their exit polls, and the official results are confirmed on 4 November.
How many seats are needed to form a government in Israel?+
61 of the Knesset's 120. No party has ever won that many on its own, so every Israeli government has been a coalition of several parties.
What is the electoral threshold?+
3.25% of the valid votes. A list below it wins no seats at all; one just above it wins about four.
Who is leading in the polls?+
Yashar averages 21.7 seats in the latest poll from each outlet, ahead of Likud at 21. The parties of Netanyahu's outgoing coalition average 50.6 between them.
Can Israelis abroad vote?+
Only those serving the state abroad, such as diplomats, and their families. They vote at embassies and consulates, this time on 20 October. Every other Israeli has to be in Israel on election day to vote.
Why do the polls disagree so much?+
Each outlet has its own pollster, sample and method. This year Channel 14's polls have given the outgoing coalition 12.5 seats more than the other outlets did in the same fortnight, and Maariv's 5.1 fewer.