Exit polls show Winter and Hendel parties falling short of the threshold

Two new parties built around public figures with security and reservist credentials appear to have failed to win seats in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, according to the exit polls published on election night. Abu Ali Express reported that neither Amcha Yisrael, led by Ofer Winter, nor the Reservists party (listed as "The Reservists, Economic") headed by Hendel and Zelicha crossed the electoral threshold in any of the polls.

The two leaders responded differently. News.co.il reported that Winter acknowledged the defeat in remarks that evening, while Ynet reported that the Reservists chairman has not given up, arguing that ballots still to be counted could alter the result. Ynet added that the Haredi Public party associated with Leitner also appears to have fallen outside the threshold.

What the electoral threshold means

Israel elects its parliament by nationwide proportional representation. Voters choose a party list rather than an individual candidate, and seats are shared out according to each list's share of the national vote. A list must reach a minimum share of valid votes, known as the electoral threshold (in Hebrew, achuz hachasima, literally "the blocking percentage"), to enter the Knesset at all. Votes for a list that falls below that line do not translate into any seats.

That rule is why the fate of small and new parties is closely watched on election night. A party that narrowly misses the threshold can affect the overall balance between political blocs, because the votes it drew are effectively removed from the count that determines seat allocation.

Exit polls and the "double envelopes"

The figures discussed on election night are exit polls, known in Hebrew as midgamim, carried out by broadcasters as polling stations close. They are estimates, not official results, and Israeli exit polls have at times differed from the final tally, particularly for parties near the threshold.

Hendel's hope rests on what Israelis call the "double envelopes". These are ballots cast by voters who cannot vote at their regular polling station, a group that includes soldiers on duty. Each ballot is placed in an inner envelope and then an outer one carrying the voter's details, so it can be checked before being counted. Because of that extra step, these votes are tallied after the regular ballots. According to Ynet, the Reservists chairman argues that these envelopes may change the picture, and the outlet described him as waiting for the soldiers' votes. Given the party's name and its appeal to reservists, that group of voters is the one its leadership is looking to.

Winter blames the campaign against his party

Winter's party pointed the finger at its rivals on the right. Ynet reported that people in Amcha Yisrael accused Likud, the party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Religious Zionism, the party led by Bezalel Smotrich, of running what the party called an "irresponsible campaign" that led to its defeat.

In his own remarks, as quoted by News.co.il, Winter said that without what he described as an "ugly campaign" against his party, there would now be a "strong right-wing government". He also argued that his list had drawn votes from opposition parties or from people who would otherwise not have voted at all. That claim, if accurate, would mean his supporters were not simply lost to the right-wing bloc, though the reports offer no data either way.

Winter thanked his activists and party members and signalled he does not intend to fold the party. News.co.il quoted him as saying "we came for the long term", and Ynet reported him as saying the movement is "here to stay".

Where the reports differ

The three reports agree that the exit polls placed both parties below the threshold. They differ in tone on how final that is. Abu Ali Express stated flatly that neither list passed in any poll, and News.co.il described Winter as conceding. Ynet, while reporting the same poll results, gave space to the Reservists chairman's argument that the uncounted double envelopes could reverse the outcome for his list. None of the reports describes official results.

What the reports do not say

The reports do not give the vote share any of the three parties received in the exit polls, nor how far each fell below the threshold. They do not say how many double-envelope ballots remain to be counted, or whether that number could realistically lift the Reservists list over the line. Hendel's argument is reported only as his own position, without supporting figures.

The reports also do not set out the evidence behind Amcha Yisrael's accusation against Likud and Religious Zionism, describe what the campaign it objects to consisted of, or include any response from those two parties. Nor do they say what Leitner's Haredi Public party said about its own result, or what the outcome means for the overall makeup of the next Knesset.