IDF officials see no concrete intel on attack; US reportedly shares PM's view

Update, 29 September, 23:07 Israel time

Military officials and a report citing American intelligence have given conflicting accounts of the threat Netanyahu described. Ynet reported that officials in the IDF say they hold no information pointing to an attack before the election. According to Ynet, the officials also say there has been no special deployment beyond what the military already does over the holiday. Ynet added that Israel remains on alert and is keeping up close coordination with the US military.

A different account came from Washington. News.co.il, citing Fox News, reported that American intelligence officials told the US network that the United States shares Netanyahu's assessment that an attack is possible. Neither report names the enemy or describes the kind of attack feared, and the two accounts have not been reconciled.

Before the late-night briefing, Lapid consulted with Naftali Bennett. N12 political correspondent Dafna Liel reported that the two agreed the meeting with Netanyahu should also address what they called a serious and immediate security risk: a shortfall of 20,000 soldiers. They also cited the burden placed on reservists by the government's refusal to draft all sectors of Israeli society. According to N12, they also talked about how to ensure the election is conducted properly and that security operations are kept free of political considerations.

The reports do not yet say whether the meeting with Netanyahu has taken place or what Lapid was told.

The story as first reported

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Tuesday, during a visit to the Tel Nof air base, that Israel's enemies may try to attack the country in the run-up to the coming election. Haaretz reported that he spoke of "signs" pointing to such an attempt. He did not say publicly who the enemies were or what form an attack might take. The Jerusalem Post carried his remarks under the phrase "Don't mess with us."

The warning set off a day of exchanges with the opposition. Opposition Leader Yair Lapid asked for an urgent security briefing. The Prime Minister's Office first answered that Netanyahu's military secretary would brief him. Lapid then demanded a meeting with Netanyahu in person, and by evening a meeting between the two had been scheduled for late that night. The Times of Israel, citing Hebrew media, put the time at 11:30 p.m., as did News.co.il. Haaretz, citing the Prime Minister's Office, gave the time as 11 p.m.

How the demand for a briefing unfolded

The first public call for a briefing came from Yashar!, the party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. In a statement published by the political commentator Amit Segal on Telegram, the party said that if Netanyahu's words about the threats were accurate, Lapid should be updated at once, so as to confirm that the threat was genuine and not a political manoeuvre aimed at the election campaign. The party said security and electoral politics must not be mixed, even in appearance. Israel Hayom described Eisenkot as demanding an immediate intelligence update for the opposition leader.

Lapid then approached the Prime Minister's Office. In reply, the office said Netanyahu had instructed his military secretary to update Lapid that day. According to The Times of Israel, the office also stated that Netanyahu holds regular security briefings with Lapid, the most recent on September 14.

Lapid rejected that arrangement. Writing on X, he argued that once the leader of a democracy says publicly that a threat could disrupt an election, everyone involved needs "a full update" on the problem and on the steps being taken. He asked for a four-way meeting including the head of the Shin Bet and the chairman of the Central Elections Committee. Amit Segal and News.co.il named them as Shin Bet chief David Zini and Judge Solberg. Netanyahu later agreed to meet Lapid; the reports do not say whether the other two officials were invited.

Ynet reported that Netanyahu was expected to hold a security consultation, and News.co.il said in the afternoon that he was meeting heads of the security establishment.

The institutions involved

The Shin Bet is Israel's domestic security service, responsible for counter-terrorism and internal threats. The Central Elections Committee is the body that organises and oversees national elections. The opposition leader is a formal post in Israel, held by the head of the largest party outside the government, and receives periodic security briefings from the prime minister. The prime minister's military secretary is a senior officer who acts as the link between the premier and the defence establishment. Tel Nof is an Israeli Air Force base.

Why the opposition is suspicious

Ynet noted that about three weeks earlier Netanyahu had said Iran was not attacking Israel and knew why, and that Tuesday's warning contradicted that remark and revived opposition suspicions. Ynet also recalled earlier claims by opposition figures Avigdor Liberman and Yair Golan that Netanyahu wants to create a security crisis in order to disrupt the election.

Commentators read the episode in political terms. A Jerusalem Post analysis described Netanyahu as returning to a familiar security-focused approach as the vote nears. Amit Segal wrote that elections are a contest over the public agenda, that Netanyahu wants it to be about security, and that by reacting, the opposition had let him set the terms of the day.

What the reports do not say

None of the reports identifies which enemies Netanyahu meant, what the "signs" consist of, or what kind of attack is feared. They do not say whether the security services share his assessment. The date of the election is not given in the material. The reports differ on whether the meeting was set for 11 p.m. or 11:30 p.m., and none says whether it took place, who attended, or what Lapid was told.