Musk congratulates AfD as Kremlin cheers Saxony-Anhalt result

Update, 7 September, 12:08 Israel time

Reaction has widened beyond European capitals to Washington and Moscow, and one party has left the door open to working with the AfD. N12's foreign desk reported that Elon Musk congratulated the party on its win in Saxony-Anhalt, and that Ulrich Siegmund, the party's leader in the state, replied by thanking him for his support and for what he called a clear and important perspective on the political developments of the present period in Germany, adding that if the party took on responsibility for leading the state he would welcome close cooperation.

Ynet reported that the result is being felt across Europe and that figures in the Kremlin celebrated it, describing the outcome as a humiliation for those it called warmongers. Ynet also reported that the left-wing BSW party is not ruling out cooperation with the AfD, which it said could bring down the long-standing firewall between the AfD and Germany's other parties. That account sits against the earlier reporting, in which other parties were said to have repeated that they would not sit in a government with the AfD. Ynet further reported commentary that it is only a question of time how long Chancellor Friedrich Merz survives the defeat.

In a separate piece, Ynet described the outcome as part of a pattern in which German voters seeking answers are left with governments unable to agree on the issues most critical to the country. No German federal statement, and no Israeli government response, appears in the new material.

Update, 7 September, 10:08 Israel time

Reaction to the Saxony-Anhalt result has begun to appear, an element absent from the earlier reporting. The Jerusalem Post reported that European leaders had voiced concern following the far-right party's win in the state election, in a report illustrated with a photograph of lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund and national co-leader Tino Chrupalla on stage at the party's election night gathering in Magdeburg. The Post did not name the leaders quoted in the material available.

Israel Hayom reported that Germany had woken on Monday to what it described as a new political reality causing deep unease across the country, and said the result was alarming Germany's Jewish community. The outlet called the vote the largest electoral achievement in the party's history and put its share of the Saxony-Anhalt vote at about 44 percent, in line with the broadcasters' projections rather than the higher figure carried by other Israeli outlets.

Neither report gives a certified final tally or a seat count beyond what has already been published, and neither names a date for official results or for the state parliament to convene. No statement from German federal officials, from named Jewish community bodies or from the Israeli government appears in either report.

Update, 7 September, 09:08 Israel time

New detail has emerged on the scale of the swing and on the only arithmetic that could keep the AfD out of the state government. Abu Ali Express reported that the party climbed from about 23 percent at the previous Saxony-Anhalt election to roughly 44 percent, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU fell from about 37 percent to around 18 percent.

The same account said the only route to excluding the AfD from office in the state would be an unusually broad coalition ranged against it, taking in the CDU, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left party. That listing of the parties involved had not appeared in the earlier reports, which named no potential coalition partners. It also sits alongside the CDU's stated refusal to govern with the left, as reported by N12.

Abu Ali Express described Saxony-Anhalt as an eastern German state of about 2 million people, one of the country's 16 federal states, with a territory it compared in size to that of Israel.

The outlets continue to differ on the CDU's share: N12 put it at 17 percent, the broadcasters' exit polls at 18.5 percent, and Abu Ali Express at around 18 percent. Ynet issued an alert saying the indication was that the far-right party would not obtain an absolute majority, without giving figures.

Update, 7 September, 07:08 Israel time

The Alternative for Germany has fallen short of an absolute majority in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament, resolving the question left open by Sunday's exit polls. N12 reported that the party took 39 seats, three fewer than it would need for a majority, and that it will seek talks with other parties, which have repeated that they will not sit in a government with it. N12 also reported that the CDU, which it put on 17 percent of the vote, has said it will not govern with the left, leaving what the broadcaster described as a complicated set of options and difficult negotiations for all sides.

The Times of Israel, carrying an Associated Press report from Magdeburg, said the party had aimed to govern alone and had missed a majority by a small margin, and described the result for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party as a heavy defeat. Lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund told the public broadcaster ARD that voters had signalled that matters could not continue as they were, and said Merz had effectively campaigned on the AfD's behalf. Siegmund was photographed at the party's election night gathering in Magdeburg alongside national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

Haaretz reported the same outcome in its live coverage, that the AfD won the state election but did not reach a majority.

The story as first reported

The far-right Alternative for Germany, known by its German initials AfD, finished first in Sunday's state election in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls published after voting closed. The Times of Israel reported that projections by the two German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF gave the party at least 44 percent of the vote, with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz in second place on 18.5 percent.

The broadcasters said it was too early to determine whether the AfD had won an outright majority of seats in the state parliament. Haaretz, citing Reuters and the German news agency DPA, reported that the party had taken about 44 percent but that it remained unclear whether it could govern alone. The Jerusalem Post put the exit poll figure at 44.5 percent, and the Israeli outlet News.co.il also reported 44.5 percent, noting that the result fell short of the 50 percent that would allow the party to rule without a coalition partner.

Where Saxony-Anhalt is and what was being decided

Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany's sixteen federal states, located in the east of the country in the territory of the former communist German Democratic Republic. Germany's states have their own parliaments and governments, which control policing, education and large parts of domestic administration, and a state premier is elected by the state parliament rather than directly by voters. Sunday's ballot was for the state legislature, not for the national parliament in Berlin, where Merz's CDU leads the federal government.

The AfD has drawn its strongest support in eastern states since its founding as a eurosceptic party, later shifting to campaigning primarily against immigration. Parts of the party have been placed under scrutiny by German domestic intelligence, and mainstream German parties have maintained a policy of refusing to enter government with it, a practice German commentators call the firewall.

A first, if the party can form a government

Israeli outlets framed the projection as a historic threshold. Ynet reported that it would be the first time since the Second World War that a far-right party leads a German state, while cautioning that the AfD would probably be unable to form a government because most other parties have ruled out joining a coalition under its leadership. The Israeli broadcaster N12 reported the same projection, first saying that a far-right party was expected to lead a German state for the first time since the war, then issuing an edited version saying that a representative of a far-right party was expected to head a state.

The Times of Israel reported that the outcome could produce the first far-right state government in Germany's post-war history, phrasing it as a possibility rather than a certainty. That gap between the vote share and the arithmetic of forming a government is the central unresolved point in all of the reports: a plurality of votes does not by itself deliver a state premier if no other party will supply the remaining seats.

What the party's leaders said

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, was pictured by news agencies casting his ballot in Tangermuende and addressing a campaign event in Magdeburg the day before the vote. Ynet reported that Siegmund, who is 35, said "we made history" and that he was extending a hand to all parties in order to change Germany's direction.

Alice Weidel, a co-leader of the AfD nationally, said the party had a clear mandate to govern after the state election and would hold talks with all parties, according to the Times of Israel's live coverage. No other party had publicly accepted such an approach in the material available.

Why Israeli and diaspora readers are watching

Israeli media covered the projection closely, as they have covered previous AfD advances. The party's rise touches directly on questions of German memory politics and on the security of Jewish communities in Germany, and the reference point used by every outlet reporting the result was the Second World War and the post-war political order built to keep the far right out of power.

What the reports do not say

These are exit polls, not certified results, and none of the reports gave a final seat count or an official tally. The sources differ on the AfD's share, with 44 percent cited by the broadcasters and 44.5 percent given by the Jerusalem Post and News.co.il, and the reports do not explain the discrepancy. The material does not give the vote shares of any party other than the AfD and the CDU, does not name which parties have refused a coalition, does not state turnout, and does not say when official results are expected or when the state parliament will convene to choose a premier. No reaction from German federal officials, Jewish community bodies or the Israeli government appears in the reports.