Trump says oil fell almost $10 a barrel on belief there will be no Iran war

Update, 3 November, 00:07 Israel time

Trump's original English wording is now available, replacing the Hebrew renderings the earlier reports relied on. Barak Ravid of Axios posted the text of the Truth Social message, in which Trump wrote that oil prices were "DROPPING LIKE A ROCK" and described the fall of almost $10 a barrel as "A RECORD". The word he used was record, which earlier Hebrew versions conveyed as unprecedented.

In the same post, Trump attributed the decline to a feeling that "there will not be a War with Iran", and wrote: "Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible." He ended with: "It could happen!"

The Times of Israel carried the post in English on its liveblog, quoting the same phrases. In Hebrew, the commentator Amit Segal and the outlet News.co.il also relayed it. News.co.il framed the drop as reflecting an investor assessment that military escalation with Iran was unlikely, a framing that goes beyond Trump's own reference to how people feel.

None of the new reports includes an Iranian or Israeli government response, or market data on the price move.

The story as first reported

US President Donald Trump said on his social network, Truth Social, that oil prices were falling sharply, by close to 10 dollars a barrel, and attributed the drop to a public belief that war with Iran will not break out. According to the foreign desk of the Israeli broadcaster N12, Trump described the decline as unprecedented, said Iran was interested in reaching an arrangement as soon as possible, and added that such a deal could well happen.

The Israeli news site Ynet carried the same message in a short alert, summarising Trump as saying that people feel there will be no war with Iran and that Iran wants a settlement. A second N12 item, attributed to Barak Ravid and marked as edited, relayed the post in the same terms as the foreign desk version.

What Trump actually claimed

The post, as relayed by the Israeli outlets, contains four distinct claims. The first is a market claim: that oil prices were dropping steeply, by nearly 10 dollars per barrel. The second is a characterisation: that this fall had no precedent. The third is an explanation: that the cause was a public assessment that no war with Iran would erupt. The fourth is a statement about Iranian intentions: that Tehran wants to reach an agreement quickly, and that this may come about.

Readers should note that the reports carry the post in Hebrew. The wording given here is our English rendering of that Hebrew text, not a quotation of Trump's original English. Ynet's alert paraphrased the post rather than quoting it in full, and its emphasis was on the Iran element rather than on oil prices.

Who reported it

Ynet is the online news arm of the Yedioth Ahronoth group, one of Israel's largest media organisations, and its Telegram alerts channel publishes short breaking items that link to fuller reports on its website. N12 is the news brand of one of Israel's main commercial television channels, and its Telegram channel posts brief updates from its reporters and desks. Both outlets were relaying a statement made publicly by the US president; neither report presents independent reporting on oil markets or on Iranian positions.

Truth Social is the social media platform Trump uses as his main channel for direct public statements. Posts there are often picked up and summarised within minutes by Israeli and international news organisations, as happened in this case, with the two N12 items and the Ynet alert appearing within a few minutes of one another.

Why it matters to Israeli readers

Iran is Israel's principal regional adversary, and any statement by a US president about the likelihood of war with Tehran, or about a possible agreement with it, is followed closely in Israel. The prospect of conflict involving Iran also tends to be watched by energy markets, because of the country's role as an oil producer and its location on the Gulf. Trump's post explicitly linked those two subjects, presenting the movement in oil prices as a market verdict on the chances of war.

The post also signals the president's own reading of Iranian intentions. By saying Iran wants an arrangement as soon as possible, Trump placed the emphasis on diplomacy rather than confrontation. The reports do not describe the content of any such arrangement, who would be party to it, or whether talks are under way.

What the reports do not say

• None of the reports includes a response from Iran to Trump's statement that it wants a deal, and no Iranian official is quoted.
• The reports do not give market data to support the figure of close to 10 dollars a barrel, nor do they say which oil benchmark Trump meant or over what period the fall took place.
• The claim that the decline was unprecedented is Trump's own, and the reports offer no evidence for or against it.
• No response from the Israeli government is reported, and the reports do not say whether Israel was consulted on any possible arrangement with Iran.
• The reports do not describe what agreement Trump had in mind or what stage, if any, negotiations have reached.